Sunday 29 July 2012

Welsh Government - End of year report

The Assembly is now in recess. How do I, personally, think
the Welsh Government (and opposition leaders) have performed
in this first year since the March 2011 referendum?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)
First Minister

C (D within Wales, B externally.)

Is Carwyn a good "figurehead" for Wales – someone who you would be pleased to have represent the nation – yeah. I'm quite happy with his performance there. In fact, I'd say he's perhaps better than Rhodri Morgan in that regard.

I've been fairly impressed with how Carwyn has handled relations with Westminster, his ponderings on the constitution, the relatively successful business trips and his somewhat "ambassadorial" role. Despite Dafydd-El's hissy fit recently, I agree with him that Carwyn Jones is quite the statesman, and manages to be both affable and presidential at the same time – an excellent combination for any politician.

Is Carwyn a good "First Minister" – someone who drives progress, inspires confidence and competence, and motivates their government to action. From what I've seen, it's a big no.

So that's something Carwyn Jones and David Cameron have in common then.

With regard the government side of things, I've seen little to be impressed with. In the first half of the Assembly year there was near paralysis. Since then, we've had a lacklustre legislative programme (with a few exceptions), reannouncements and relaunches, fiascos like the Green Investment Bank Bid, AWEMA, that nuclear weapons "brain fart" and the spin surrounding future health service reforms in Wales. He's been unusually combative in FMQ's, in many cases asking more questions instead of answering them. Personally, I think he's been coming off worse for it too, though others will disagree and question the standard of the opposition.

Not good enough, really.

Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)
Finance Minister, Leader of the House

C+

I've said before that this is Jane Hutt's niche, and she's doing well. It can't be easy for any Labour politician to be in charge of making cuts of any kind, but Jane's budgeting has been relatively fair, with the "pain" spread evenly. The score would've been higher had the Infrastructure Plan not been, largely, made up of re-announcements and over-promising with regard capital spending on health.

Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower)
Minister for Business, Enterprise, Technology & Science

C-

This score will no doubt surprise a few of you. I've been heavily critical of things Edwina's been involved in, but there are several glimmers of hope : the continuation of the Economic Renewal Plan, the new science strategy, a few early successes with regard enterprise zones and the new innovation strategy currently under consultation.

She's a hard-worker, but I think it's the people around her that need to buck their ideas up. Nowhere near good enough considering the challenges facing the Welsh economy, but I'll give her credit for trying. For now that's all we can ask of her. Results can't come quickly enough though.

Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda)
Minister for Education & Skills

B

Leighton's consistently one of the Welsh Government's better performers (on paper at least). Ultimately, his legacy is going to be one based on delivery. If all the new strategies and initiatives fail to produce tangible results in education, then his record will be tarnished. Marks have been taken off for his aggressive approach to higher education mergers.

He has an iron-will determination about him - perhaps a little too heavy-handed - but maybe that's what we need in Welsh schools. I'm not sure how long his more "shoot first, ask questions later" approach will last before he angers the wrong interest group.

Carwyn is in the First Minister's job until he gets bored or he/Labour are voted out of office. Even though the chance of the latter occuring is less likely than Elvis crashing a Tardis into Cardiff Bay, if there were an opening at the top, from what I've seen so far, Leighton is probably the only candidate from the front benches that can step up to it in any meaningful way. That should worry Welsh Labour, really.

John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
Minister for the Environment & Sustainable Development

C+

Would've been higher had he not made a u-turn on the badger cull. The rights and wrongs of it are up for debate, but it doesn't look good when a decision like that was dragged on for so long.

However, he's one of the cabinet members I've been relatively impressed with. John seems keen to get his hands dirty, and isn't afraid of making big decisions. He had big shoes to fill since Jane Davidson left, but he's acclimatised pretty well. He'll have a lot of work to do in coming years with the environment bodies merger, changes to planning in Wales and Sustainable Development Bill. I'm convinced he's up to that. Not bad.

It would be a travesty if he were shunted aside in the future for someone with a bigger mouth and a bigger head.

Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Minister for Health & Social Services

D-

Lesley is in serious danger of losing control of the health agenda.

Marks are taken off for telling fibs about bail outs, and the recent issue regarding that "independent report" (perhaps unfairly). That's not to say she hasn't done some things well – reforms are the "right thing". Also, Lesley is delivering some major investments in hospitals (albeit ones re-announced for the umpteenth time), the Organ Donation Bill and overseeing really tough financial decisions in the NHS - which no Labour minister really wants to be doing.

I think Lesley should be given more free reign in how she's allowed to present the case for hospital reorganisation. Health is always going to be one of the more difficult portfolios to have in Wales, but I've got the impression that Lesley might have been pressured to present things in a certain way. I'm not sure how long we can wait for her to grown into the role, or how long she'll be given. There are echos of Jane Hutt circa 1999-2005 here.
She narrowly survived a no-confidence vote (that should never really have been called in the first place), however if the subject of that vote had been exclusively on her performance to date (which would be slightly unfair, I'd admit) she would be a goner.

Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Minister for Housing, Heritage & Regeneration

C+

Huw might not be as high-profile as he'd like, but at least he's been busy. He's made some good contributions to the report on the future of the Welsh media, leading to several of his recommendations being taken up. He's also produced a very comprehensive white paper on housing - albeit with some fairly unambitious targets in some respects. On the heritage side of things, there's a new development at St Fagans carried over from the last government, but I imagine, at heart, he'll be more concerned with the regeneration aspect of his portfolio.

Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Minister for Local Government & Communities

C

It's been a quiet year for Carl. He's finally got around to lifting the veil hanging over Anglesey Council, but hasn't announced any major transport projects of any note as far as I can remember. The M4 Newport issues will finally be addressed - as many a Welsh Government has aspired to - but I don't see anything actually happening on the ground for a while. I think once more substantial local government reforms are announced we'll hear more from him. Not bad, but not exactly blow your socks off stuff from him either.

Theodore Huckle QC
Counsel General

B

Should Wales have a separate legal jurisdiction? We're finally being asked that question, and I'm sure both Carwyn and Theodore played a part in that. Creating a separate Welsh legal jurisdiction would be historic because it would effectively consign the "official" EnglandandWales to the history books and the cricket pitch. Most of the high score is for getting the ball rolling on that alone, however from what I've seen he comes across as a very astute individual who has the confidence of the Assembly. Not sure about all this nonsense regarding a silver badge though.

Junior Ministers

Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath)
Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services

C

Gwenda's introduced a comprehensive draft bill on social services, which, even if it is above the level of understanding for the general public and only really of concern to care professionals, will hopefully lead to much improved social services. Gwenda is a friendly, familiar face, but it's been a relatively quiet year for her.

Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly)
Deputy Minister for Skills

D

This is through no fault of his own, and not really a criticism, but he doesn't appear to have done very much. All deputy ministers risk becoming anonymous, and considering his portfolio, he's likely to be in the shadow of Leighton Andrews a lot of the time. However, he is leading a review into qualifications which, in the medium-term, will hopefully deliver better results and improve education standards. I'm looking forward to seeing what ideas this comes up with.

Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
Deputy Minister for Agriculture, Food, Fisheries & European Programmes

C+
This role - which really deserves to be a full-time cabinet position - is one that requires a lot of travelling and a lot of hard graft. He doesn't appear to have the complete confidence of the farming community - they're always a hard bunch to please, perhaps with good reason - but as far as I can see he hasn't done much wrong. He takes the role incredibly seriously by all accounts, despite representing an urban constituency.

He's going to have a far more important role if Wales secures (unfortunately) another round of Objective One funding. I hope he can lead an investigation into whether the EU funds are being spent in the right way.

An unsung hero, but his occasional snide remarks against his predecessor are completely uncalled for. He's no Elin Jones.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

D

I like "RT" - seriously. For some reason, he hasn't been able to set out a stall for himself. The Tories have become very disorganised since the loss of Nick Bourne, seeming to be in retreat when they really should be on the front foot off the back of 2011's good Assembly results. Though to his credit he's overseen the positive development of "Your Voice" – a new Welsh Tory "superblog".

Andrew needs to get a grip on things and work out what's wrong – it's not him, really – and sort it before someone decides to put a knife in his back. That would be a shame, because he comes across as one of the few AMs with any life and character to him.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

N/A – Too soon

It's far too early to make a proper judgement on Leanne's leadership. Yes, the local election results will have been a disappointment, but losses were expected. Yes, Plaid's membership increased in the run up to her election, but I haven't really seen anything that hints at a significant departure or alternative to Labour's hegemony (with a few notable exceptions).

I've neither been blown away, nor disappointed so far, but there's been some progress. I think most Plaid members and supporters would say the same thing. Her excellent contribution to the Diamond Jubilee debate and motion a few weeks ago - despite it arguably being laid as a "trap" - builds on her credentials as someone to take seriously, dare I say it - "stateswomanlike". Aside from the embarrassment caused by nursing a teething Dafydd Elis-Thomas in public, it's been a good start.

Kirsty Williams
(Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

C+


Poor, poor, Kirsty. Perhaps an undeserving victim of UK politics and the Lib Dem's unpopularity. The Lib Dems have always been one of the most capable opposition groups in the Assembly since its creation. That's their trump card - holding Labour to account – but Kirsty seems to have lost her rhythm, when on her best days she shows a certain gravitas.

Her first task in turning things around, is to stop Peter Black from becoming some sort of Lord Haw-Haw for Westminster in Wales. Her second, and far more trickier task, is to distance the Welsh Lib Dems from the UK Coalition. She's managed to get Lib Dem policy through due to the budget deal with Labour, but she - and her party - should fully expect Labour to take all the credit (and all the headlines) should it be a success.

7 comments:

  1. good analysis, the only pointed i'd make is the large number of C's for Government Minister's, indicating they are fair to average performers.

    That standard may be good enough for the local Labour party or even the community council but for National Government it's pitiful, yet voters continue to put up with it and vote these idiots back in time and again.

    The Opposition will sadly never be up to it consistently and Labour know it, the farce over the Health service proved it. A wide open goal for Lib Dems, Plaid and Tories they missed and ended up shooting themselves in the foot - only in Wales.

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  2. Thanks, ACOP.

    I agree that "satisfactory" is rarely good enough at the national level, but I think I've been fair in my assessments (not as if any of them are going to read it anyway). I accept the jobs are high-pressured (within government rather than being pressured from the outside) and reflected that. I even have some sympathy for the likes of Lesley Griffiths if it hasn't shown itself here.

    I mean, if it were your typical mouthbreather from the Walesonline comments section it would be all E's and F's, wouldn't it? I'm not sure if that's true public opinion or not, or if I've reflected that accurately here.

    It's a Welsh thing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory though, mainly because we can't handle success.

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  3. Interesting that you put "too soon" for Leanne. For her and Plaid generally I think for a long time, possibly up until the next elections, you and others won't be able to put a finger on them performance-wise. It'll be neither good or bad from Plaid, I feel. This isn't because of their abilities but because of the current context and being in third place. They really do run the risk of being completely obscured in such a British political environment. They must adapt to this, or face failing to get their message through.

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  4. Thanks, Anon.

    I think you have a point about "being obscured in such a British political environment". However, should/when Labour win in Westminster in 2015, I imagine their honeymoon period will be very short indeed. It didn't take very long for people to turn against the Coalition, it'll be the same for Labour. Like it or not, they'll have to carry on a lot of the austerity measures enacted by Gorgeous George.

    Then, there'll only be one alternative in Wales....Perhaps that's wishful thinking, but as long as Leanne and her team are sensible about it, and carve out concrete policies, they'll be fine, and things can only improve - albeit at a snail's pace.

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    Replies
    1. Very good point. Given that it appears the consensus is another 8 - 10 years of slow growth and austerity, we must assume that even if Labour wins in 2015, they will quickly find that they have to end up carrying on largely as the Tories have done.

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  5. I agree, Owen. Plaid has to make clear it is the alternative to Labour. This is not the same as being the opposite to Labour, or for that matter being the same as Labour!

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  6. I think Plaid need to stop admiring Labour, or cultivating their slight inferiority complex with regard Labour, and stand apart from all the other parties. Plaid are as much a "movement" as they are a party - none of the other parties can claim to be that - but that has its advantages and disadvantages.

    Being Labour's "little helpers" is as bad as being the Tories supposed "little helpers". Being "little helpers" full stop is damaging. Plaid need a backbone, and should take actions entirely in Wales' interests. Sometimes that means helping Labour, sometimes not. But what they should avoid seeing themselves as, is part of some grand "progressive coaltion". There are too many vested interests at play in such a thing and Plaid will always come out second-best.

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